Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: Strong TNF action on an RB’s receiving prop
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: Our experts like overs for NFL and NBA
🤔 ASK THE TRADER: Will we see an NFL total close at 35 this weekend?
💰 BIG WIN: One bettor turned $25 into $46K with 12 unders
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS:Josh Allen has won 18 of 19 games when the Bills are laying at least a touchdown at home. Unders ⬇️ have been crushing in general, including primetime unders having gone 16-7 (69.6%) this season.
MAKING MOVES: Both the spread and total have experienced noteworthy shifts. After the Bills opened as 7.5-point home favorites, the line has risen to Bills -9.5. The total has increased as well, going up from 42 to 43.5.
TOP PROPS: Not only is Rachaad White over receiving yards the most popular player prop by money for TNF, it has drawn over two times more handle 💵 than any other player prop. White’s receiving yards prop was as low as 20.5 and it now stands at 25.5. Among all bets for this market, the over has nabbed 98.4% of the handle as well as 97.2% of the tickets.
Fanatics just turned Power 💪 Hour up a notch, as everyone is getting a bigger BONUS BET today!
Here at the Hustle, we share noteworthy betting action every single edition. So let’s turn it into a parlay for TNF and take advantage of the Power Hour surge (starting 6 p.m. ET).
The “Hustle’s People Parlay” will feature the game’s three most popular player prop bets by tickets from your fellow bettors. Instead of trusting one person’s opinion, we’re rolling with the opinion of thousands 🧠.
For tonight’s clash between the Buccaneers and Bills, the most popular player props by tickets are Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown, Mike Evans anytime touchdown and Diggs 50+ receiving yards. The “Hustle’s People Parlay” pays out +500 and you can find it already built on the betting app homepage up until kickoff.
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein is rolling with overs on player props for NBA and NFL. Max Meyer is joining the over party by buying low on a struggling Bills wideout.
THE PROP QUEEN
76ers’ Tyrese Maxey Over 22.5 Points (-110) [7:30 p.m. ET]
“Maxey scored just under 25 PPG last season in games without James Harden. Damian Lillard is an exciting add for the Bucks, but going from Jrue Holiday to Lillard is a big downgrade for Milwaukee’s perimeter defense.”
“The Bills have been getting Diggs the ball, as he has more than twice as many targets as the next-closest Buffalo player. Tampa’s secondary has allowed opposing No. 1 wideouts to go over 100 yards in four of six games.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Bills WR Gabe Davis Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
“Davis has struggled recently, but I think he’ll be a big benefactor with the Bills’ offense playing more 11 personnel with Dawson Knox out. The Bucs have been much more stout stopping the run compared to defending the pass.”
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
There are 11 NFL games this week with totals below 45 😮, including three that are 38 or lower. That’s highlighted by Falcons at Titans with a total that is in rare territory.
Falcons-Titans was originally posted at 37, which was the second-lowest Week 8 opening total behind Jets-Giants at 36.5. Yet, Falcons-Titans has dropped to 35.5 while Jets-Giants has remained at 36.5.
If Falcons-Titans closes at 35.5, it would be tied for the lowest NFL total this season with Patriots-Jets from Week 3.
What would it take for the Falcons-Titans total to go even lower and break the tie? We asked trader Wyatt Satre for his thoughts 💭.
ASK THE TRADER: While I think it’s largely baked in already, Ryan Tannehill (ankle) going from unlikely to play to officially out would drive the total down to 35. It’s fitting that a game with Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Will Levis as the quarterbacks would be the lowest NFL total of the season.
How about this incredible hit from a Pennsylvania bettor? All 12 legs were unders on player point props north of 20.
The closest call 😅? Zion Williamson came back in with 7:08 left in the fourth quarter against the Grizzlies while sitting at 11 points. The Pelicans big man then had a monster 4-minute stretch where he scored 12 points, capped by an alley-oop slam with 2:51 remaining. But he didn’t score the rest of the game, as his 23 points squeaked under his 24.5 prop.
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Max Meyer
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