Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: Dallas dominating spread action vs. Seattle
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: Two experts give out their favorite TNF props
📈 MARKET MOVERS: Chet overtakes Wemby as Rookie of Year fave
🏈 TOTAL THURSDAY: Iowa football makes history once again
Fanatics Sportsbook Presented by PointsBet creative
Great news: You can take advantage of TNF with a BONUS BET on us 😃! If you’re trying to figure out how to use it, we have a suggestion.
Here at the Hustle, we share noteworthy betting action every single edition. So we turned it into a parlay that is now being offered on the betting app homepage up until kickoff.
The “Hustle’s People Parlay” will feature the game’s three most popular player prop bets by tickets from your fellow bettors. Instead of trusting one person’s opinion, we’re rolling with the opinion of thousands 🧠.
For tonight’s clash between the Seahawks and Cowboys, the most popular player props by tickets are CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown, DK Metcalf 50+ receiving yards and Tony Pollard 50+ rushing yards. The “Hustle’s People Parlay” currently pays out +300.
We’re also offering BOOSTED ODDS on FIRST TOUCHDOWN SCORER during tonight’s Power Hour, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Fanatics Sportsbook Presented by PointsBet data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: The Cowboys are the fifth team in NFL history to be 8-3 or better through Week 12 without a single win against a team at .500 or better 😮. Pete Carroll has the best against the spread mark of any coach in night games over the past 20 years, compiling a 35-19-3 ATS record in that period.
MAKING MOVES: Both the spread and total have seen considerable increases from their openers. The Cowboys were first listed as 7-point home chalk but have since climbed up to -9.5. Meanwhile, the total has jumped up from 45.5 to 47.5.
TOP PROPS: CeeDee Lamb 💿 🐑 has found the end zone in three straight games, and his anytime touchdown is the most popular player prop bet by tickets. Lamb is priced at -120 to score, as the only player with shorter TNF touchdown odds is Tony Pollard at -150.
Speaking of Pollard, the over for his rushing yards leads all player props in handle. Pollard’s rushing yards prop opened at 60.5 and now resides at 65.5, with 86.7% of the tickets and 72.7% of the handle coming in on the over.
EXPERT PICKS
Ryan Leaf and Ariel Epstein are both taking a Cowboys player to go over their receiving yards prop, and Epstein is adding an NBA player prop as well.
“Cooks always develops a great relationship with his quarterback wherever he lands. He’s been a focal point of Dallas’ offense the past few weeks and will get targets with CeeDee Lamb getting so much attention.”
THE PROP QUEEN
Spurs F Zach Collins Over 13.5 Points (-115) [8 p.m. ET]
“The Hawks have allowed the fifth-most points per game and opposing starting power forwards have averaged 21 points in the last five games against Atlanta. Collins has scored 18.7 points per game against bottom-10 defenses.”
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [8:15 p.m. ET]
"The Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (41.9) to opposing running backs. Pollard has put 47 receiving yards per game against defenses that have struggled to cover pass-catching backs.”
Chet Holmgren has received 38.3% of the tickets and 62.5% of the handle among all NBA Rookie of the Year bets.
Victor Wembanyama was the most hyped player to enter the NBA 🏀 in some time. For the first time all season, however, he’s not the Rookie of the Year favorite.
Wembanyama started the season as the -150 odds-on favorite, with Chet Holmgren as the second choice at +325. Now Holmgren is atop the board for the first time at -145, with Wemby close behind at +115.
So why is the Thunder big man now leading the pack for Rookie of the Year? We brought in trader Jake Fisher to help explain 🕵️♂️.
ASK THE TRADER: In the days following Holmgren’s 33-point performance against the 76ers, we have noticed the NBA ROY market shift dramatically in his favor. He is our second-largest liability for any award behind Luka Doncic MVP. His current price of -145 can be attributed to his efficient play for the 11-6 Thunder. But I think Holmgren’s strong supporting cast somewhat mitigates the difference in record between the Thunder and Spurs. He’s gotten to play more as a secondary option compared to Wembanyama battling as the Spurs’ top player, which I think the voters for this award will consider.
No team has cashed unders at a higher rate this college football season than Iowa.
Iowa football has been making all kinds of history this season, and its appearance in the Big Ten title 🏆 game is no different.
The Hawkeyes have cashed the under in seven straight games, including in the two lowest totals in college football history (25.5 at Nebraska, 27.5 vs. Rutgers).
For Saturday’s Big Ten title game between Iowa and Michigan, the total is once again in historic territory. At 35, it’s the lowest total for any conference championship game ever. Yet, the over has been dominating the action so far for this total 🤔, as it has collected 81.2% of the tickets and 88.9% of the handle.
There’s one other interesting note for this showdown, courtesy of the Bet the Board podcast. In games featuring a favorite of at least 21 points (Michigan is -21.5) and a total of 37 or fewer since 1980, favorites have gone 2-12 against the spread and have failed to cover by an average margin of 11 points.
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