Hustle® is a newsletter spotlighting our biggest bets, juiciest promos and strongest insights to get you ready for the best betting stretch of your life.
IN THIS ISSUE
🏫 BACK TO SCHOOL: These top-10 teams aren’t getting many spread bets
🔥 EXPERT PICKS: Two TNF props and one CFB home underdog
📺 MARQUEE MATCHUP: Big bets are in for Bears-Commanders props
🤔 ASK THE TRADER: A surprising over is most popular Week 5 total bet
These underdogs have gotten the most handle to pull off a Week 6 upset. (PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience creative)
Ranked favorites went 14-1 straight up last week, but will this upcoming weekend be when the dogs 🐶 run wild?
Two underdogs in particular have gotten strong action to cover against top-10 foes in Week 6. Let’s check out the latest action for each, as well as bring in football trader Jake Fisher to help explain the reasoning behind these two public dogs.
Kentucky at Georgia (-14.5) Spread Action: Kentucky 78.8% tickets, 96.3% handle Ask the Trader:Georgia head coach Kirby Smart told the media this week that every SEC team should be ranked—perhaps trying to cover up how much his team struggled with South Carolina and Auburn 😬. Kentucky dominated Florida in Week 5, and Georgia QB Carson Beck is going to have to play much better with Kentucky having a top-20 run defense.
Maryland at Ohio State (-20) Spread Action: Maryland 71.2% tickets, 73.6% handle Ask the Trader: Maryland has featured a top-15 offense this season, averaging 39 PPG with the Big Ten’s leading passer in Taulia Tagovailoa. The banged-up Buckeyes just had a bye week to recover from Notre Dame, but Marvin Harrison Jr. is still nursing an ankle sprain. Asking Ohio State to win by 3+ TDs feels like a tall task against a scrappy Terrapins squad.
EXPERT PICKS
Ariel Epstein has a player prop for each team playing on TNF, while Max Meyer is eyeing a more under-the-radar college football play.
“The Commanders have allowed the third-most rushing yards to QBs this season. Fields had at least 46 rushing yards in six of seven games last season against bottom-10 teams defending QB runs.”
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
“The Bears have allowed the most receiving yards to running backs this season. One running back has had at least 16 receiving yards in every game against the Bears, and Gibson is Washington’s main pass-catching back.”
THE SENIOR EDITOR
Louisiana Tech +6 (-110) vs. Western Kentucky [8 p.m. ET]
“I’m not buying 3-2 Western Kentucky, as it has been outgained by nearly a full yard per play by opponents (5.3 YPP, 6.2 YPP allowed). Louisiana Tech has a stout secondary that has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game and can slow down prolific WKU QB Austin Reed.”
Great news: You can take advantage of TNF with a DAILYBONUS BET during tonight’s Power 💪 Hour, starting at 6 p.m. ET. If you’re trying to figure out to how use it, let us suggest a parlay.
Here at the Hustle, we share noteworthy betting action every single edition. So we turned it into a parlay that is now being offered every TNF and MNF.
The “Hustle’s People Parlay” will feature the game’s most popular player prop bets by tickets from your fellow bettors. Instead of trusting one person’s opinion, we’re rolling with the opinion of thousands 🧠.
For tonight’s clash between the Bears and Commanders, the most popular player props by tickets are Brian Robinson anytime touchdown, Robinson 50+ rushing yards, Sam Howell 200+ passing yards and D.J. Moore 25+ receiving yards. The “Hustle’s People Parlay” pays out +240 and you can find it already built on the betting app homepage up until kickoff.
PointsBet: A Fanatics Experience data and insights
OPENING KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET
KEY FACTS: The Bears are the only team whose four games this season have all gone over, as they’ve allowed 25+ points in an NFL-record 14 straight games 🤢. Commanders QB Sam Howell has been sacked 24 times so far, and he’s on pace to shatter the previous single-season record (David Carr’s 76 in 2002).
MAKING MOVES: After opening as 5.5-point home favorites, the Commanders first went up to -7 before currently residing at -6. The total has crept up by a point, swinging from 43.5 to 44.5.
TOP PROPS:Brian Robinson anytime TD (now -170) has drawn the most handle 💵 of any TNF player prop, keyed by one Illinois bettor laying $5,000 back when he was -160 for a potential payout of $8,125.
The only bigger player prop bet placed so far? A Michigan bettor put down $5,798.78 on Khalil Herbert 8+ rushing attempts (-290) for a potential payout of $7,798.78. Herbert 8+ rushing attempts is now priced at -350.
Welcome back to Total Thursday, where we’ll be looking at a noteworthy total bet (excluding TNF) every week.
The NFL Week 5 total bet that has drawn the most handle may be a bit of a surprise. It’s actually the over for Jets at Broncos, which has moved from 41 to 43. That’s right, the over for a Zach Wilson–Russell Wilson showdown 😮.
The Jets-Broncos over has drawn 95.3% of the handle among all bets placed on this total, despite the under actually possessing the advantage with 57.0% of the tickets. Jets-Broncos over has also drawn over two times more handle than any other Week 5 total bet excluding TNF.
We brought in football trader Jake Fisher to provide the context on why this over has brought in so much money 💸.
Ask the Trader:The one-sided action from bettors on this over is likely a reaction to the Broncos’ league-worst defense by PPG and YPG along with Zach Wilson putting forth a formidable effort on SNF versus the Chiefs. The weather calls for clear skies and the altitude could help kickers’ range significantly on field goals. Don’t forget Sean Payton’s slander of Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett this offseason, perhaps providing some extra motivation on both sides.
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